The end of free web sites?

If you’re part of the millions of people who produce content online, you know it can be a lot of work.

It way more than just typing text in a blog, it’s…

• the readings;
• the research;
• the interviews;
• the checks (and counterchecks);
• the concepts;
• the visuals (with the costly Adode Suite);
• the scripts (including the theme and plug-in tweaks);
• the publishing;
• the promotion;
• the follow-ups (namely for blog comments);
• and so on!

…and depending on how the web publisher is setup, it can be more or less work but in all cases, there’s always a certain amount of time and money involved (yes, money — computers aren’t free).

So it’s only normal that web publishers will so happily ad Google’s AdSense publicity zones within their content, to get back a bit of their investment. In both 2007 and 2008, the pay-per-click model was awesome, with revenues streams a serious web publisher could very well live with.

But around February of 2009, things went very wrong with AdSense’s eCPM levels which were tanking, even though the visitor count was going up and the general quality of the web properties was better than ever.

Some think it’s the recession, others think the reasons are less well known (and probably not known at all) but almost all web publishers have felt the drop, with varying intensity.

So the free content came under attack from a general lack of funding.

Some web publishers have simply closed shop and taken their content with them. Others have kept the content available only to paying customers while others are still praying for Google AdSense revenues to go back up again, with apparently no success at all.

Many AdSense publishers go to the forums to complain about the rock-bottom level of eCPMs but Google isn’t responding. The Mountain View giant is acting like as if everything was fine and dandy. You can ask Google what’s going on but all you’ll get is a type of canned answer that if, as a web publisher, you place your ads differently, your revenues will go back up — which is a very debatable premise.

It’s not that surprising that so many web publishers are frustrated with the ridiculously low Google AdSense revenues and they’re basically forced to invent new way to make up for the spectacular pay-per-click revenue nosedive. One of the ways to make money is to charge for access to the content, through a paid-membership model.

That’s ok with lots of people who can afford the membership but one site at the time, the internet is transforming into a constellation of gated communities. By all means, that can’t be good for anyone.

As Google AdSense is continuing to show lower and lower eCPMs, as if that was even possible, web publishers are accelerating the migration towards a wide array of membership models but they’re all paid. Google had the perfect model for the web, with AdSense. Sadly, it’s not working anymore.

Sure, Google AdSense is still up and running but if you can make a living off a few pennies or bucks a day, you’re awfully lucky but most serious web publishers can’t and that’s why 2009 might be the start of the end, for free web sites.